AFC South roundtable: Who will come out on top?

As the United States celebrates Independence Day, it’s a team in red, white and blue that is the favorite to win the AFC South.

Though the Jacksonville Jaguars were able to hold off the Houston Texans last season to take the division crown, will they be able to earn back-to-back titles for the first time since the AFC South’s creation in 2002?

Our four AFC South reporters weighed in on the happenings around the division as teams take a break ahead of the start of training camps at the end of the month, and they also predicted that the Texans — the favorites according to DraftKings with +110 odds — would take home the crown.

Here’s more from D.J. Bien-Aime (Texans), Michael DiRocco (Jaguars), Turron Davenport (Titans) and Stephen Holder (Colts):

Last year’s record: 12-5

FPI ranking: 13

FPI predicted win total: 9.2

Strength of schedule: No. 26

All-Pro defensive end Will Anderson Jr. made the goal for Houston clear: Super Bowl. He told reporters at OTAs that placing such a lofty goal on the Texans was “fair” as he feels this roster is capable of reaching an achievement that has eluded the 24-year-old franchise. Anderson rallied the team before a practice and said, “The front office, the coaches, they made the decision to bring you here because they thought you could help us win that Super Bowl, so you’re a Super Bowl-caliber player.” Their elite defense is still intact. All eyes will be on the offense, led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, to see if it can muster up enough points to complement one of the best defenses in the NFL.

What’s one thing we should know about this team?

The Texans’ goal is the Super Bowl, but they’ve never been beyond the divisional round (0-7) — including losses the past three seasons. In fact, Houston is the only franchise in the league to never reach a conference championship.

Who’s going to turn heads in camp?

For better or worse, wideout Tank Dell. Whenever Dell participates in camp, it’ll be his first time competing in 11-on-11 since his gruesome knee injury in December 2024. Once he returns, the evaluation shifts past his triumphant comeback from a career-threatening injury to how he will contribute to the Texans’ wideout room. Right now, the room is led by No. 1 wideout Nico Collins with Jayden Higgins being the incumbent No. 2.

Which move will have the biggest impact this season?

The Texans revamping their rushing attack could morph into a deciding factor come January. Before free agency, the organization traded for the Detroit Lions’ David Montgomery. As far as the offensive line, Houston signed guard Wyatt Teller and tackle Braden Smith before drafting Keylan Rutledge in the first round. Coach DeMeco Ryans desperately wants a physical rushing attack come the playoffs, and these moves could fulfill his wishes.

Last year’s record: 13-4

FPI ranking: 17

FPI predicted win total: 9

Strength of schedule: 22nd

The Jaguars are hoping to do something the franchise hasn’t done in nearly 30 years: Make it to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons (they made it each year from 1996 to ’99). The franchise has only had back-to-back winning seasons just twice since then (2004 and ’05, 2022 and ’23). In coach Liam Coen’s first season, the Jaguars won the AFC South thanks to standout play from QB Trevor Lawrence. If Lawrence has truly unlocked his potential, Jacksonville has a chance to repeat as division champs.

What’s one thing we should know about this team?

The Jaguars believe CB/WR Travis Hunter, coming off knee surgery that ended his 2025 season in October, is going to help improve the pass rush in Year 2. The team did little in the offseason to address one of its biggest weaknesses (32 sacks, ranked 27th) but believes Hunter’s elite coverage skills as the team’s No. 1 corner will make the overall coverage significantly better. That will give the rush more time to get to the quarterback, which will result in more pressures and sacks.

Who’s going to turn heads in camp?

There’s no reason to think it won’t be WR Parker Washington … again. He has been one of the camp standouts in each of the past two seasons. It hadn’t really translated to the regular season until last year, when he moved into a bigger role after injuries to Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. Washington responded with career highs in catches (58), yards (847) and TDs (five). He was Lawrence’s top target in the final three weeks of the season — 29 targets, 19 catches, two 100-yard games.

Which move will have the biggest impact this season?

The hiring of Brian Picucci as run game coordinator. The Jaguars’ run game tailed off late last season — 128.1 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry in Weeks 1-12 dropping to 91.2 YPG and 3.3 YPC in Weeks 13-18. Coen hired Picucci, who helped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ run game go from last in 2023 to fourth in the NFL in 2024, to make the unit more consistent despite the loss of their starting back Travis Etienne Jr. Replacing Etienne will be Chris Rodriguez Jr., Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. — who combined to rush for 901 yards last season. Picucci will be looking to get the most out of that group in 2026.

Last year’s record: 3-14

FPI ranking: 27th

FPI predicted win total: 6.5

Strength of schedule: 25th

After back-to-back 3-14 seasons, the Titans desperately need an influx of positive energy. Insert the addition of Robert Saleh and his coaching staff. The energy was contagious during OTAs and minicamp. Saleh’s “All Gas, No Brakes” approach has the players feeling excited about the season. Excitement is good, but none of it matters if second-year quarterback Cam Ward doesn’t have success under new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Ward will have more playmakers this season with the additions of free agent receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and the No. 4 overall draft pick in receiver Carnell Tate to go along with a healthy version of veteran receiver Calvin Ridley. The defense will likely be the strength of the team with a revamped secondary and attacking front led by Jeffery Simmons.

What’s one thing we should know about this team?

Daboll’s presence figures to help Ward develop into a dangerous playmaker and more accurate passer. Just look at what Daboll and quarterbacks coach Shea Tierney did with Josh Allen in his early years in Buffalo as an example. They’ll take a similar approach with Ward. Tierney said their process includes watching video of Ward’s mechanics with him in slow-motion type and talking through each throw; whether it was good or bad.

Who’s going to turn heads in camp?

Safety Kevin Winston Jr. Winston is an ascending player who plays with the speed and the “violence” Saleh covets. The guy had a tough time pulling back and not hitting receivers during OTAs. Winston is always around the ball and loves to come up to fill against the run. Playing under the wisdom of veteran safety coach Marquand Manuel should help Winston get a better feel for zone coverage, which is his main area for improvement.

Which move will have the biggest impact next season?

Adding Robinson gives Ward a consistent, reliable option high-percentage throws especially in third-down situations. The two seemed to turn it up a notch during minicamp as they worked to get on the same page. Robinson running those option routes in the middle of the field will lead to a high-target volume. He’ll work mostly from the slot and be a big-time aid in generating first downs. Robinson generated first downs on 75 of his 185 receptions over the last two seasons.

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Last year’s record: 8-9

FPI ranking: 20th

FPI predicted win total: 8.1

Strength of schedule: 28th

If you’re finding it difficult to decide how to view this team, that’s nothing new. Take last season, for example, when the Colts’ season was something of an identity crisis. They were, perhaps, the hottest team in the NFL for the first half of the season, jumping out to an 8-2 start heading into their Week 11 bye. Along the way, their league-leading offense was setting records on a seemingly weekly basis.

Then came a rash of injuries — including a season-ending Achilles tear for quarterback Daniel Jones — and the Colts collapsed, losing their final seven games.

This season, ownership is looking for clarity on which team this really is. What happens next will determine the future of the team’s brass and, most likely, some key players.

What’s one thing we should know about this team?

The Colts are filling more holes than some might realize, especially on defense. Indianapolis is expected to have at least five new defensive starters, many of them quite young.

There will likely be a rookie at the center of the defense, with second-round pick CJ Allen expected to take over at middle linebacker. Rookie A.J. Haulcy has the early lead in the battle to start at strong safety, and second-year players like nickel corner Justin Walley and defensive end JT Tuimoloau will factor prominently as well.

Who’s going to turn heads in camp?

With No. 1 receiver Alec Pierce coming off an offseason ankle surgery that has sidelined him since late March, the Colts will exercise extreme caution as he makes his way back. That leaves the door open for slot receiver Josh Downs to continue with the playmaking he displayed during offseason workouts, when he looked to be the go-to target for quarterbacks working with the first-team offense.

Which move will have the biggest impact next season?

The Colts are expecting a belated boost from the much-debated 2025 trade that landed All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner. His impact was muted by injuries in the eight games he spent with Indianapolis last season. Gardner played 196 of a possible 542 defensive snaps after he was traded in Week 10.

This season, Gardner seems motivated, openly saying he expects to make All-Pro again. If he does, the Colts’ defense will benefit greatly.