2026 World Cup: How teams can advance to the knockout rounds

The first matchweek of the 2026 World Cup is in the books! But even at this early stage of the tournament, plenty could be decided over the next several days.

The creation of a knockout round of 32, and the eight best third-place teams out of 12 advancing as a result, has made it much harder to project teams’ paths through the World Cup. Nonetheless, the format of the group stage and its initial head-to-head tiebreakers mean we will see some teams seal places in the knockout rounds, while others might have their dreams of making it out of the group stage shattered.

According to FIFA, the tiebreakers if two or more teams in the same group are equal on points after the group stage are as follows:

Step one
– Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned
– Superior goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned
– Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned

Step two (if still equal)
– Superior goal difference in all group matches
– Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches
– Highest team conduct score (players and team officials) relating to the number of yellow and red cards obtained

Step three (if still equal)
– Ranked according to the most recent published edition of the FIFA/Coca‑Cola Men’s World Ranking

Here’s what’s at stake in the next week of action.

– 2026 FIFA World Cup match schedule: Fixtures, results, features

GROUP A

Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia

Mexico and South Korea are in strong positions after winning their first matches against South Africa and Czechia, respectively. It sets up an important clash between the group leaders in Matchweek 2, as the winner would qualify for the knockouts rounds and seal a first-place finish in the group.

If Mexico and South Korea draw, neither team can guarantee a spot in the knockouts, though they would be likely to advance.

South Africa and Czechia played out a 1-1 draw on Thursday, staving off elimination for now. But it’s likely that each would have to win their final group stage game to have any hope of advancing to the knockout rounds.

In the round of 32, the Group A winner will face a third-place team from one of five possible groups, while the runner-up will play the runner-up of Group B (Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar).

Next fixtures:
Mexico vs. South Korea (Zapopan, Mexico), Thursday, 7 p.m. local / 9 p.m. ET

GROUP B

Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland

Canada and Switzerland are level with four points at the top of the group, but the host Canadians now lead by virtue of their superior goal differential after beating Qatar 6-0. That advantage could make a big difference, because the two teams will play each other next with first place in the group on the line. Switzerland must win if they want to top the group, while Canada would earn first place with either a win or a draw.

The stakes will be even higher in Bosnia and Herzegovina‘s match with Qatar. The winner will stand an excellent chance of qualifying for the knockout rounds, though not guaranteed as it could depend on whether they are one of the eight best third-place teams, while the loser would be eliminated. A draw would likely send both teams home early.

It’s mathematically possible for either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar to even finish second if they win, but that would require the winning team to overturn a significant goal differential against the loser of Canada-Switzerland (if that match doesn’t end in a draw, which would eliminate both teams from the World Cup).

In the round of 32, the Group B winner will face a third-place team from one of five possible groups, while the runner-up will play the runner-up of Group A (Mexico, South Korea, Czechia, South Africa).

Next fixtures:
Switzerland vs. Canada (Vancouver, Canada), Wednesday, noon local / 3 p.m. ET
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar (Seattle), Wednesday, noon local / 3 p.m. ET

GROUP C

Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland

Scotland‘s 1-0 win over Haiti means they will advance to the round of 32 if they beat Morocco on Friday. It would be an impressive accomplishment for Steve Clarke’s team, and it would put them in a strong position to win the group.

Haiti have their backs against the wall as a result. They will be eliminated if they lose to Brazil and Morocco beat Scotland.

And as for the group favorites, Brazil and Morocco, their 1-1 draw leaves them in an uncertain position. But with wins in their next matches, in which both will be favored, they will be well on track to qualify.

In the round of 32, the Group C winner will face the runner-up of Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia), while the runner-up will play the winner of Group F.

Next fixtures:
Scotland vs. Morocco (Foxborough, Massachusetts), Friday, 6 p.m. ET
Brazil vs. Haiti (Philadelphia), Friday, 9 p.m. ET

GROUP D

United States, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye

The United States‘ historic win over Paraguay opened a path for them to qualify after two matches. If the U.S. beats Australia, it would qualify for the knockout rounds. If Türkiye lose or draw against Paraguay in Matchweek 2 as well, the U.S. would win the group.

Australia are in a similarly strong position. If they beat the U.S., they would be guaranteed to advance — and combined with a Türkiye win or draw against Paraguay, it would be as group winners.

On the flip side, Paraguay would be knocked out of the World Cup if they lose to Türkiye and Australia win or draw vs. the U.S., while Türkiye would be eliminated if they lose to Paraguay and the U.S. wins or draws vs. Australia.

In the round of 32, the Group D winner will play the runner-up from any of five groups, while the runner-up will face the runner-up of Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand).

Next fixtures:
United States vs. Australia (Seattle), Friday, 3 p.m. ET
Türkiye vs. Paraguay (Santa Clara, California), Friday, 9 p.m. local / Saturday, 12 a.m. ET

GROUP E

Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador

Germany won in impressive fashion over Curaçao, with the match ending 7-1. They could now qualify for the knockout rounds with a win over Ivory Coast, while a Curaçao win or draw against Ecuador in combination with that would secure first place for Julian Nagelsmann’s team.

Ivory Coast are in a similarly strong position after a 1-0 win over Ecuador. They would advance with a win over Germany, and an Ecuador win or draw in addition to that would make them group winners.

The losing teams from Matchweek 1 are now in perilous positions. Ecuador would be eliminated with a loss to Curaçao and a Germany win or draw against Ivory Coast, while Curaçao would be eliminated with a loss to Ecuador and an Ivory Coast win or draw against Germany.

In the round of 32, the Group E winner will play the runner-up from any of five groups, while the runner-up will face the runner-up of Group I (France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway).

Next fixtures:
Germany vs. Ivory Coast (Toronto), Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
Ecuador vs. Curaçao (Kansas City, Missouri), Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

GROUP F

Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia

Sweden were convincing in a 5-1 win over Tunisia, with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres getting on the scoresheet. They are now in position to advance to the knockout rounds if they defeat Netherlands in their second match.

Meanwhile, Tunisia are fending of elimination — if they lose to Japan on Saturday and Netherlands beat Sweden, their World Cup dreams will be over.

Netherlands and Japan played out a thrilling 2-2 draw in the first matchweek, so either team remain capable of topping the group.

In the round of 32, the Group F winner will face the runner-up of Group C (Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland), while the runner-up will face the winner of Group C.

Next fixtures:
Netherlands vs. Sweden (Houston), Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
Tunisia vs. Japan (Guadalupe, Mexico), Saturday, 10 p.m. local / Sunday, 12 a.m. ET

GROUP G

Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand

Like Group B, this group had two draws in the first round of matches. None of the four teams can qualify for the knockout rounds after Matchweek 2, and none can be eliminated from the World Cup.

In the round of 32, the Group G winner will face a third-place team from one of five possible groups, while the runner-up will play the runner-up of Group D (United States, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye).

Next fixtures:
Belgium vs. Iran (Inglewood, California), Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
New Zealand vs. Egypt (Vancouver), Sunday, 9 p.m. ET

GROUP H

Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay

Group H is yet another group that had two draws in the first matchweek. None of the four teams can qualify for the knockout rounds after Matchweek 2, and none can be eliminated from the World Cup.

In the round of 32, the Group H winner will face the runner-up of Group J (Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan), while the runner-up will play the winner of of Group J.

Next fixtures:
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia (Atlanta), Sunday, noon ET
Uruguay vs. Cape Verde (Miami Gardens, Florida), Sunday, 6 p.m. ET

GROUP I

France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway

After France‘s and Norway‘s big wins in their 2026 debuts, featuring big performances from stars Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland, their paths are simple: Win their next matches, and they’ll be in the knockout rounds.

Even if both countries have qualified for the knockouts before they play each other in Matchweek 3, first place in Group I will still be up for grabs — and that will be the difference between playing a second- or third-place team in the round of 32.

Neither Senegal nor Iraq can be eliminated with a loss. The teams will play each other in the final matchweek, and a win (particularly a decisive one, to boost their goal differential) would keep them in the running to advance as a third-place team.

In the round of 32, the Group I winner will face a third-place team from one of five groups, while the runner-up will play the runner-up of Group E (Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador).

Next fixtures:
France vs. Iraq (Philadelphia), Monday, 5 p.m. ET
Norway vs. Senegal (East Rutherford, New Jersey), Monday, 8 p.m. ET

GROUP J

Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan

Argentina and Austria are in position to qualify for the knockout rounds in their second group-stage contests but they need wins and, unfortunately for them, they play each other.

If Argentina beat Austria on Monday, the Albiceleste are on to the round of 32; if Algeria also pick up a point or more against Jordan, Argentina will win the group.

Similarly, if Austria upset Lionel Messi & Co., Ralf Rangnick’s team will be among the last 32. A Jordan win or draw vs. Algeria in addition to that would make Austria the group winners.

At the other end of the Group J table, Algeria could be going home if they lose to Jordan and Austria draw or beat Argentina. Meanwhile, Jordan will be knocked out if they lose to Algeria and Argentina win or draw against Austria.

In the round of 32, the Group J winner will face the runner-up of Group H (Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay), while the runner-up will play the winner of Group H.

Next fixtures:
Argentina vs. Austria (Arlington, Texas), Monday, 1 p.m. ET
Jordan vs. Algeria (Santa Clara, California), Monday, 11 p.m. ET

GROUP K

Portugal, Congo DR, Uzbekistan, Colombia

Colombia were tested a bit by Uzbekistan in their first match, though they still emerged with a 3-1 win. That gives them the opportunity to clinch a knockout round place with a win over Congo DR.

Uzbekistan are in danger of elimination as a result. If they lose to Portugal and Congo DR defeat Colombia, there will be no hope for the central Asian nation to avoid fourth place in the group.

After Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal‘s surprise 1-1 draw against Congo DR, all scenarios remain open for both teams. Either would feel confident of qualifying for the knockouts with a win in their next match.

In the round of 32, the Group K winner will face a third-place team from one of five groups, while the runner-up will play the Group L runners-up (England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama).

Next fixtures:
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan (Houston), Tuesday, 1 p.m. ET
Colombia vs. Congo DR (Zapopan, Mexico), Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET

GROUP L

England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

England and Ghana were the winners in Group L’s first matches, with the Three Lions powered by a Harry Kane brace. They’ll play each other in Matchweek 2 on Tuesday, and the winner will clinch a place in the knockout rounds.

If England beat Ghana, they’d need a Croatia win to secure first place in the group, while Ghana would hope for a Panama win if they emerge victorious.

If England and Ghana draw, neither team will be assured a place in the knockout rounds at that point.

The loser of Croatia vs. Panama, meanwhile, will be in danger of elimination. If it’s Croatia, they would be knocked out with a Ghana win or draw against England, while Panama would be eliminated from knockout round contention with a loss and an England win or draw against Ghana.

In the round of 32, the Group L winner will face a third-place team from one of five groups, while the runner-up will play the runner-up of Group K (Portugal, Congo DR, Uzbekistan, Colombia).

Next fixtures:
England vs. Ghana (Foxborough, Massachusetts), Tuesday, 4 p.m. ET
Panama vs. Croatia (Toronto), Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET