Projecting 2026 NFL rookie leaders in 10 stat categories
Mike Clay
Multiple Authors
It has been nearly a month since the 2026 NFL draft, so we have a much better grasp of what each team’s roster will look like this season. That means we can start to project expectations for rookies.
Which newly drafted players will lead the pack in major statistical categories? What are reasonable expectations for Fernando Mendoza with the rebuilding Raiders? How many yards could top-five selections Jeremiyah Love and Carnell Tate pile up? And will David Bailey — the highest-drafted defender — have the most sacks?
Let’s take a look at the top five projected leaders among 2026 rookies in a variety of categories. These team and player projections are my own, compiled through a process that is both quantitative (league, team, coaching and player trends) and qualitative (projected depth chart placement and role). Missed time due to injury is not factored in, with players projected for 17 games unless otherwise noted.
For full statistical outlooks, you can check out this handy PDF or head over to our projections page to sort and filter through the entire league. Both are updated often leading up to the start of the season.
Jump to stat leaders:
Passing | Receiving | Rushing | TDs
Tackles | Sacks | Interceptions
Passing yards and touchdowns
1. Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders: 3,052 yards, 14 TDs (14 starts)
2. Carson Beck, Arizona Cardinals: 448 yards, 3 TDs (2 starts)
3. Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams: 146 yards, 1 TDs (0 starts)
4. Cade Klubnik, New York Jets: 143 yards, 1 TDs (0 starts)
This is an extremely low-impact QB class, at least in terms of projected Year 1 expectations. It’s possible we will see zero rookie starters in Week 1. This shouldn’t be shocking considering two quarterbacks were selected in the first round and none were picked in the second.
That said, first-round quarterbacks generally play early, especially when selected No. 1 overall like Mendoza. From 2012 to 2025, 33 of 45 first-round QBs (73%) took over as the starter by Week 4, including Jaxson Dart (who took over in Week 4 last season). Twenty-three (51%) started in Week 1, including Cam Ward last year. Nine of 11 quarterbacks chosen first overall have started in Week 1 during the span, with Baker Mayfield (Week 3) and Jared Goff (Week 11) being the exceptions.
It’s possible Mendoza opens his career behind Kirk Cousins, but history suggests he’ll be on the field within a month. Simpson (the No. 13 pick) is a unique situation, similar to Jordan Love in 2020, in which he was very clearly selected as a developmental player. Simpson won’t see the field much in 2026 unless Matthew Stafford gets injured or is rested.
There have been 32 rookie quarterbacks who appeared in at least 12 games since 2012 (excluding Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, who were used situationally as rushers), and that group averaged 3,051 passing yards and 16.7 touchdown passes. That passing yardage average is nearly identical to Mendoza’s projection, whereas the TD figure is a bit higher. That makes sense considering Las Vegas’ shaky wide receivers room.
Of the 45 QBs drafted in the first round since 2012, 17 reached 3,000 passing yards, and 16 threw 15 or more touchdown passes as rookies.
Beck (Round 3) and Klubnik (Round 4) have a shot to make a few starts if their respective teams struggle to remain in contention. Only six quarterbacks who weren’t drafted in the first two rounds have appeared in more than 10 games in Year 1 since 2012, with Dak Prescott (2016), Gardner Minshew II (2019) and Russell Wilson (2012) being the top producers.
Receiving yards and touchdowns
1. Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans: 1,065 yards, 5 TDs
2. Jordyn Tyson, New Orleans Saints: 917 yards, 5 TDs
3. Makai Lemon, Philadelphia Eagles: 883 yards, 5 TDs
4. KC Concepcion, Cleveland Browns: 773 yards, 3 TDs
5. Kenyon Sadiq, New York Jets: 691 yards, 4 TDs
Both Tate (No. 4) and Tyson (No. 8) were top-10 selections, which is notable. Take a look at the production of the 16 wide receivers who were selected with a top-10 pick since 2012:
It’s a small sample, but 12 of the 16 wideouts produced at least 865 yards. The 13 receivers on the list who appeared in at least 14 games averaged a hefty 25% target share (Rome Odunze’s 19% was the lowest). History tells us Tate and Tyson will be very busy and productive as rookies.
The outlook for receivers selected from pick No. 20 through the third round is solid but unspectacular. Since 2012, there are 155 WRs in that range who played at least one snap as a rookie. Of that group, 23 (14.8%) reached 800 receiving yards, and 23 hit seven receiving touchdowns. Lemon and the Browns’ duo (Concepcion and Denzel Boston) have a path to substantial Year 1 workloads, but expectations should be kept in check. The same goes for the dozen other Day 1-2 receivers, from late first-rounder Omar Cooper Jr. to late third-rounder Chris Bell, who is coming off a torn ACL suffered late last season.
First-round tight end Sadiq just made the cut and is worth a quick examination. Only 12 tight ends in NFL history have produced more than 700 receiving yards as a rookie, but half of them have come since 2021, including three last season (Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin Jr. and Colston Loveland). This new trend of early-career tight end usage suggests Sadiq has a shot at a strong rookie campaign.
Rushing yards and touchdowns
1. Jeremiyah Love, Arizona Cardinals: 1,129 yards, 7 TDs
2. Jadarian Price, Seattle Seahawks: 915 yards, 8 TDs
3. Mike Washington Jr., Las Vegas Raiders: 365 yards, 2 TDs
4. Emmett Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: 291 yards, 2 TDs
5. Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders: 226 yards, 2 TDs
Love was selected with the third overall pick, and history tells us he will be very productive as a rookie. The past five backs selected in the top seven (Saquon Barkley, Trent Richardson, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Ashton Jeanty) all produced at least 260 carries, 950 rushing yards and five rush TDs (four reached nine) in Year 1. All but Jeanty did it in fewer than 17 games. Reaching 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie isn’t easy, but 11 first-round RBs since 2012 had 200-plus carries as a rookie (a number Love should eclipse even with a few missed games), and all 11 reached 930 rushing yards. The group averaged 1,156 yards and 8.7 rush TDs.
Since 2012, eight RBs have been selected in the second half of the first round. Five reached 800 rushing yards (Doug Martin, Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, Sony Michel and Clyde Edwards-Helaire) despite the latter three appearing in only 13 games each. The three exceptions were limited to a backup/situational role (Mark Ingram II, Rashaad Penny and David Wilson). Price — the No. 32 overall pick — has a shot to earn lead back duties in Seattle’s run-friendly offense with Zach Charbonnet recovering from a January ACL tear, so there’s real potential for Price to have an immediate major role.
In what was a weak running back class, Love and Price were the only players selected in the first two rounds, and there are no others with a clear path to a major role right away. Washington and Johnson will battle for primary backup duties, as will the likes of Kaelon Black (49ers) and Jonah Coleman (Broncos). Of the 218 backs who were drafted between Rounds 3 and 7 since 2012 and played at least one offensive snap as a rookie, only 22 (10.1%) reached 700 rushing yards and 14 (6.4%) had six or more rush TDs.
Touchdowns from scrimmage
T-1. Jadarian Price, Seattle Seahawks: 9
T-1. Jeremiyah Love, Arizona Cardinals: 9
T-3. Makai Lemon, Philadelphia Eagles: 5
T-3. Jordyn Tyson, New Orleans Saints: 5
T-3. Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans: 5
Touchdowns from rookies have been on the decline (fewer than 140 in three of the past five seasons). While last season was an outlier (as predicted in this column due to the loaded running back class), we should see a major crash back to earth in 2026.
Since 2012, 32 rookies have reached 10 TDs, with RJ Harvey (12), Jeanty (10) and TreVeyon Henderson (10) hitting the mark last season. Of those 32 double-digit TD scorers, 23 were running backs, so even in a year with a shaky running back class, seeing Love and Price atop the list isn’t surprising. The aforementioned past five backs selected in the top seven all produced a minimum of 300 touches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie.
The low wide receiver numbers might seem foolish, but if we look at the 602 rookie WRs since 2012 in our sample, only 53 (8.8%) reached six TDs in their first season. Tetairoa McMillan led all first-year receivers with seven TDs last season, and only five others reached five scores. As our earlier chart showed, even the 16 top-10 wide receivers who played a major role as a rookie averaged 5.6 TDs.
Tackles
1. Sonny Styles, Washington Commanders: 123
2. Arvell Reese, New York Giants: 116
3. CJ Allen, Indianapolis Colts: 94
T-4. Caleb Downs, Dallas Cowboys: 82
T-4. Dillon Thieneman, Chicago Bears: 82
Shaquille Leonard’s 163 tackles in 2018 are the most by a rookie over the past decade, though he is one of only four rookies (all picked in the first two rounds) to reach 125 during the span. In fact, zero rookies reached 100 tackles in 2023 or 2024 prior to three (Carson Schwesinger, Demetrius Knight Jr. and Barrett Carter) hitting that total in 2025.
Styles’ projection is a big one, as 122 would be sixth most among rookies over the past decade. The large number isn’t by accident, as the No. 7 overall pick is expected to replace Bobby Wagner as a near-every-down player in the middle of Washington’s defense. Reese (No. 5 overall) was selected before Styles, but his role (is he more of an edge or an off-ball linebacker?) is a little less clear. Considering the underwhelming state of the Colts’ off-ball linebacker room, Allen has a path to a full-time role as a second-round pick.
The most tackles by a rookie safety over the past decade is 147 by Jalen Pitre in 2022. Only 12 others reached 80 during that span, with three hitting 100. First-rounders Downs and Thieneman are positioned as every-down starters in Dallas and Chicago, respectively. Both should put up solid tackle numbers in Year 1.
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Sacks
1. David Bailey, New York Jets: 7.6
2. Malachi Lawrence, Dallas Cowboys: 5.7
3. Rueben Bain Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5.6
4. Akheem Mesidor, Los Angeles Chargers: 4.9
5. Keldric Faulk, Tennessee Titans: 4.4
Rookies are averaging 106.0 sacks per season over the past decade, but the past two seasons (84.5 in 2024 and 100.0 in 2025) have been far below that average.
James Pearce Jr. led the way with 10.5 sacks last season, but no other rookie had more than 5.5, and only two others reached 5.0 (Jalon Walker and Nic Scourton). Micah Parsons’ 13.0 sacks in 2021 was the most by a rookie over the past decade, and only five other freshmen (including Pearce) reached double-digits. Four of the five were first-rounders. (Maxx Crosby was a fourth-rounder in 2019.)
That’s especially relevant considering that five edge rushers were drafted in the first round this year (all listed above) and is the reason why none of them is projected to clear 7.6 sacks. In fact, each sack projection above would rank in the top 25 among first-round picks over the past five years. All five edge rushers will likely be busy, but let’s keep statistical expectations in check.
Interceptions
1. Treydan Stukes, Las Vegas Raiders: 2.0
2. Mansoor Delane, Kansas City Chiefs: 2.0
3. Caleb Downs, Dallas Cowboys: 2.0
4. Dillon Thieneman, Chicago Bears: 1.8
5. Chris Johnson, Miami Dolphins: 1.5
These always seem super low, but that’s intentional. Rookies have combined to average 41.7 interceptions per season over the past decade, including 37 last season. They have combined for fewer than 40 INTs in five of the past seven seasons, and first-rounders have combined for 13 picks over the past three seasons.
Only six rookies have had five interceptions over the past decade, with Riq Woolen (six) the only player to exceed that number. Last season, Xavier Watts (five INTs) led all rookies and Denzel Burke (three) was the only other one with more than two.
Wide-open cornerback depth charts in Kansas City and Miami position first-rounders Delane and Johnson with an immediate starting path. Downs and Thieneman are in the same boat at safety with their teams, and Stukes (a second-round pick) has a good shot to quickly earn a major role at safety in Las Vegas.
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